Sunday, May 20, 2012

On to the Belmont

I'll Have Another definitely had another run in him on Saturday, as the Kentucky Derby winner passed Bodemeister in the stretch again to win the Preakness Stakes and head to the Belmont Stakes with a chance to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

It must have been a severe case of deja vu for Bodemeister and jockey Mike Smith to see I'll Have Another and Mario Gutierrez roll up alongside them in the closing strides on Saturday. It was a repeat of the duo's powerful rally to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown two weeks ago at Churchill Downs.



Now I'll Have Another has a shot at the elusive title at New York's Belmont Park, which hasn't hosted a horse with a chance for the Triple Crown since Big Brown won both the Derby and the Preakness in 2008.

For those hoping to see the first Triple Crown winner in nearly 3 1/2 decades (or even for those who are not), consider these parallels between I'll Have Another and Affirmed discovered by researchers at ESPN:

2012 Derby: I'll Have Another beats Bodemeister by 1 1/2 lengths
1978 Derby: Affirmed beats Alydar by 1 1/2 lengths

2012 Preakness: I'll Have Another beats Bodemeister by a neck
1978 Preakness: Affirmed beats Alydar by a neck

The same horse finished first and second in all three Triple Crown races in 1978, with Affirmed edging Alydar by a head in the Belmont.

Alydar beat Affirmed later that summer -- the two raced against each other 10 times, with Affirmed winning seven of the meetings -- on a disqualification in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga when Affirmed cut off Alydar in the stretch en route to the finish line. Alydar nearly fell, but still finished second and was properly placed ahead of Affirmed after a jockey objection and stewards' inquiry.

If nothing else, the quest for a Triple Crown will provide a huge boost to the economy in New York and wherever bets are taken. We'll be watching.

 

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Kentucky Derby picks

OK. So here's my top contenders for the Kentucky Derby later today:

1. Gemologist (unbeaten and brilliant, held off Alpha stubbornly in winning the Wood Memorial)
2. Bodemeister (would Bob Baffert run a horse named after his son in the Derby if he wasn't great?)
3. Hansen (his owner is nuts -- horse's tail dyed blue before Bluegrass -- but the near-white colt is really good and good looking)
4. Union Rags (battle tested, very strong)

Top longshot: Trinniberg (bred by Saugerties' J M Stables, should be on lead early, but distance a concern)

Happy betting!!!

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Getting set for the Derby: Union Rags

In this profile of a Kentucky Derby contender we take a look at Union Rags, who drew the No. 4 post and was listed as the second choice on the morning line for Saturday's 138th edition of the Run for the Roses.

Union Rags was the runner-up to Hansen by just a head after being forced four-wide throughout last year's exciting Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.


He should be raring to go after last running way back on March 31, when he finished third behind Take Charge Indy and Reveron in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Union Rags stalked the leaders, but his run after angling out at the sixteenth pole came too late.

Watch that race here: http://youtu.be/fwtPBb6bcxo

Union Rags won his three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth in February, easily outdistancing News Pending by nine lengths under a hand ride from jockey Julien Leparoux.

He has four wins, one second and a third in six career starts, including wins in the Grade 1 Champagne and Grade 2 Saratoga Special.

Trainer Michael Matz won the 2006 Derby with Barbaro, who broke down in the Preakness Stakes and later died due to complications from his injuries despite unprecedented efforts to save him. He has another strong runner here, and a win could very well be in the cards here for the underrated thoroughbred conditioner. Matz won a silver medal as a member of the U.S. equestrian team at the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta.